Phillyist Framed Returns!
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Across the Ist-a-Verse
In part one of our interview with Fox 29 meteorologist John Bolaris, he revealed his side of “The Storm of the Century.” In part two, he talks about predicting and presenting the weather.
How much of weather prediction is based on experience and now much of it is based on all of these computer models?
You take all the computer models, but you never take it as the Bible. You take a blend. I take each computer model like building the foundation of a home. Make the foundation first and see if you can continue to build.
When I see the computer models, I am baking a cake. I take this one, this one, this one. If this one is saying this, this one is saying this, this one is saying this, I kind of blend them together and take a middle road.
My past experience comes into play when I know which model handles which situation better. So I blend the models and experience is huge when it comes to that because it just comes with time and experience and continuing to look at the models day in and day out. Over the years you get the feeling, you get trends; you know which model handles what particular storm system better.
A lot of it at the end is experience and agonizing over numerics and then coming up with a forecast. It is not an exact science by any stretch. It is just that people expect so much more because we have all this information now. They want pinpoint accuracy, but that is just impossible when it comes to forecasting, especially snow. In the Delaware Valley, you can’t do that.
You are like an artist, putting things together.
Philadelphia has been called by many in the news field a weather centric market. Do you see that now more so since you have come back from New York?
You know what, weather is the priority in the news both here and in New York. It is news you can use everyday. It is the reason they watch the ten o’clock, eleven o’clock news – the number one reason is for weather. It is a commuter city in New York and Philadelphia. People rely on it, businesses rely on it and it is huge. People are fascinated by the weather, especially now with the global changes that are taking place.
What I do, I have a great responsibility to give them something accurate. I kind of do it in a light way, because it is not brain surgery and it is a breathing moment during the newscast as well. I don’t want to be over techie with it, but I want them to understand what is going to happen for the day without coming across like, “We got this vorticity complex that is going to do into a deep trough that is going to give a nudge out on a negative tilt.” You know, simple terms like, “Hey don’t worry too much about it in the morning, but lunch break…. You may want to walk your dog in the morning.”
When I got to Philadelphia in 1990, I noticed that this market didn’t have any kind of real sophistication when it came to weather. So I created what the papers called “The Weather Wars.” Everyone started to come up to snuff. Remember WPVI with the cartoons and they said they were never going to change their image of just putting up these little cartoons?
But you need to have a sophistication. You need to tell a story and it needs to be a learning vehicle as well, especially for the students that are watching it. The kids that are watching are fascinated with it and computers and animations and 3Ds and HDs now. So it is still a fascinating part of a news segment.
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"So I created what the papers called “The Weather Wars.” Everyone started to come up to snuff. Remember WPVI with the cartoons and they said they were never going to change their image of just putting up these little cartoons?"
So he's taking responsibility for the demise of the cartoons?