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Last night was obviously good for Pennsylvania Democrats, but precisely how good remains to be seen. They can claim already Rick Santorum's Senate seat, at least three--and maybe four--Congressional seats, and five state House seats. Locally, Democrat Patrick Murphy seems likely to pick up Pennsylvania's Eighth District with a razor-thin lead over Mike Fitzpatrick, but Fitzpatrick has yet to concede. In the Seventh District, Curt Weldon lost as expected to Vice Adm. Joe Sestak, putting an end to the career of a man listed in Rolling Stone as one of the worst members of Congress. Rep. Jim Gerlach looks to hold onto the Sixth District, although Phillyist notes that his lead has shrunk consistently since first being elected in 2002. We can only assume that a stiff breeze will suffice to knock him out of Congress in 2008.
(UPDATE: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick has conceded; Patrick Murphy is now the fourth Democratic pickup in the Pennsylvania area.)
In an otherwise good year for Pennsylvania Democrats, state House Minority Whip Mike Veon (D-Beaver) lost his seat to a Republican challenger, apparently for voting against the repeal of the legislative pay raise. In doing so, Veon may have garnered a rare distinction--he may be the highest-profile Democratic incumbent to lose his seat this year. If there was any doubt that this election is a striking rebuke to the President, consider this: while one race in Georgia is still
considered too close to call, it appears likely that no congressman, senator, or governor from the Democratic Party will lose this year.
More after the jump...
It's almost as significant which Republicans lost their seat this year. Some, like Santorum and Reps. Pombo and Hayworth (of California and Arizona respectively), were traditional conservatives. But far more typical was the experience of Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, who had a 62% approval rating and lost. Chafee voted against the Iraq war, and against Bush in 2004, and yet because he was a Republican voters held him responsible for both. And the large majority of pickups in the House were made in the Northeast and Midwest, as progressive Democrats knocked off moderate Republicans. In New England, for example, Republicans may well be left holding only Christopher Shays's lonely seat in Connecticut. What this means, according to political scientist Tom Schaller, is that "the new Democratic majority will be more progressive as it expands, and the remaining Republican minority will become more conservative as it shrinks."
What this means long-term is hard to say. Democrats are in the awkward position of having a mandate for change, but little actual authority to carry it out. Wars are, after all, the traditional province of the executive. However, the loss of Don Rumsfeld--and his (likely) replacement with a man closely associated with the foreign policy of Bush, Sr.--may signal a willingness on the part of the administration to change course, once the bipartisan Baker-Hamilton commission completes its report on Iraq. (Yes, Phillyist is a perpetual optimist. We also like puppies and sunshine.) In any case, Democrats should keep in mind that this victory is an opportunity, not a conclusion. A lot depends on where we go from here.
Image credit: Flickr user eawb
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