
Like most of you, I'm sure, Phillyist has been gratified to see Sen. Rick Santorum make the long, occasionally hilarious journey to the private sector. Bob Casey has led in the polls since the race began, the national GOP is already planning on a loss in Pennsylvania, and Santorum himself is pinning his last hopes on the critical WWE Smackdown contingent. Meanwhile, when the GM told Lynn Swann to make a Political Aptitude check, the dude didn't exactly roll a natural twenty.
But there's a good deal more at stake than Santorum's tenuous hold on dignity. All indications show that turnout on Tuesday will be considerably higher than usual for a midterm election, and if national polls are to be believed, those voters will be boiling with dissatisfaction at the status quo. Local Democrats are trumpeting a small, but noticeable, shift in party registration in area suburbs. The hope--and it is just a hope--is that 2006 will prove to be the Democratic 1994, the year that Northeastern Republicans, holding on to power in districts that generally support Democratic presidential candidates, will finally be swept aside. We'll look at three local Congressmen who might be at risk.
PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) v. Lois Murphy (D) - Rep. Gerlach is perhaps not the strongest politician there ever was. The state legislature designed the district so that Gerlach (then in the State Senate) could win, going through such contortions that it became known as the Pterodactyal District. But even with the state legislature pulling out all the stops, Gerlach won by a slim 2.8% margin in 2002. In 2004, he beat relative unknown Lois Murphy by even less. Murphy is back, now with campaign experience and a strong Democratic headwind, and she's apparently making the national Republicans nervous. At the least, they're running ads that accord her all the respect you might give a two-fisted babyeater, presumably hoping that voters will be shocked by revelations that liberal organizations support the Democratic candidate. But the Pterodactyl must be hungry for the flesh of the innocent, since Murphy has been ahead for months.
PA-07: Rep. Curt Weldon (R) v. Joe Sestak (D) - It's hard not to root for Weldon, whose career has been rooted so firmly in faith and redemption. When even administration-appointed weapons inspectors said that Iraq had no capacity to produce WMDs, Weldon kept faith. When Ali, his personal source for intelligence on the Middle East, was revealed to be Iran-Contra conspirator Manucher Ghorbanifar, twice identified by the CIA as a fabricator of intelligence, Weldon kept faith. And when Serbian war criminal Bogoljub Karic didn't have a friend in the world, only Weldon realized that he needed to be forgiven--and should a lucrative trade deal come with forgiveness, we can all agree that the Lord works in mysterious ways. And does not the Lord Jesus say, "Who of you, if his daughter asked him to violate federal law by using his position for her lobbying clients, would give her a serpent?"
Alas, the Lord also says His followers will be persecuted, just as He was. Weldon is no exception. According to Gregory Auld, a Weldon supporter who heard it from a guy named "Grumpy", who heard it from a guy at his gym who was wearing a Joe Sestak T-shirt, Sestak, Clinton, and the Prince of Darkness have fooled the FBI into investigating his illegal, but very loving, activities. And I fear that Lucifer has also led the National Republican Congressional Committee into forsaking their brother for Reps. Fitzpatrick and Gerlach, just because he's seven points behind opponent Joe Sestak. St. Paul tells us that the Father gives us victory in Christ, but that's the only kind of victory Weldon can expect.
PA-08: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) v. Patrick Murphy (D) - The Eighth District is home to what will probably be the tightest race in the state. Over the past decade, District 8 has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates like Clinton, Gore, and Kerry. However, the district was held by moderate Republican James Greenwood until his sudden retirement in 2004, and despite a belated entry into the race, Philadelphia native Fitzpatrick pulled off an eleven point victory. There's little chance that he'll win so decisively this time. Some polls afford him a thin lead over Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy, but Fitzpatrick has no end of headaches: from last Saturday's arrival of Barack Obama and Al Gore to campaign for his opponent to the million-plus that the DCCC has spent on advertising. He can only pray that Casey and Rendell don't have coattails.
Photo Credit: Drug Policy Alliance



All I want is the New Jersey political ads to stop. Senator Brown Shirt, I mean Rick Santorum getting defeated would also be a nice added bonus as well as a Democrat congress.
Heh. I've got to hand it to Santorum - that wrestling thing is now one of my favorite political ads, like, ever.
Jim, don't turn to the dark side!
Dan: Don't worry, that ad is easily outweighed by the completely stupid anti-Lois Murphy, wherein, as you've pointed out, pretty much the only negative thing they can come up with to say about her is that she's liberal. A liberal Democrat. Uh...that's okay by me!
The best political ad I have seen is the Ned Lamont ad, "Mr. Lamont goes to Washington" which is a thirty second homage to Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. It seems to have been getting heavy play, cause I have been seeing it during the news. IT is much better than those pro-Bob Menendez ads.