Chris, Phil and the Fightin' Five: July 26, 2005

2. In all of this talk about trading Billy Wagner, why is Urbina being ignored? Should the Phillies ship both closers out if they decide to sell at the deadline?

Phil: Ugueth Urbina is not a commodity because he is not currently as talented as Billy Wagner. Even in their prime, Wagner edged Urbina by a nose. Ugueth Urbina and closers in general in 2005 are fickle. Even though Urbina won it all with the Marlins in 2003, the Marlins offense and starting pitching were seen as more important factors in their success than who their closer was (it
was actually Braden Looper until Urbina was acquired). There are a number of pitchers with less than stellar careers who have saved more than 35 games. Guys like Urbina and Wagner have stayed in the pros as these less talented pitchers and they are both worth a lot to a team, but in truth the Phillies don’t need both of them. Even if the Phillies lost both Wagner and Urbina, there would be other pressing issues before you got around to restocking the bullpen: another starter, a catcher, a third-baseman, and a dynamic centerfielder. You can’t build a team around a closer; the Yanks just got lucky that Mariano Rivera was as good as he was—those late 90’s teams were built around starting pitching and Jeter, Williams, Tino, and O’Neill. Urbina is not as much as a commodity as Wagner, who throws faster and with much better control of late. They should only shop Wagner.

Also on the worst of the best closers list: Mike Williams (46 in 2002), Billy Koch (44 in 2002), Danny Graves (41 in 2004), John Rocker (38 in 1999) Bobby Thigpen, the single-season save leader had a career that fizzled out after he saved 57 games in 1990.

Chris: I don’t know that Urbina is being ignored, but it’s difficult to be in the shadow of Billy Wagner. I think Urbina would get a lot more attention (and pressure on him) if the Phillies decide to trade Wagner.

Absolutely not. I don’t even like the idea of trading Wagner, let alone getting rid of both of your best relievers. Who would you be left with – assuming you didn’t pick up other relievers in the trade? Rheal Cormier? Geoff Geary? This team has a very good chance of making the playoffs and it would be a concession to trade either of these guys. How could you win in the playoffs without a solid closer? You can’t, that’s how. I believe that if they trade either of these guys now, the Philles are saying “We give up; better luck next season.”

Wagner will be a free agent at the end of this year, but I think they
need to hold onto him and go for it this year, not scrap the season 3
games out of first place.

3. Is Robinson Tejeda going to be a long-term Phillies starter, or was his early success due to hitters' unfamiliarity with him?

Phil: Tejeda’s a starter. No one knows how good he will become, but he’s a starter. He has the stamina to pitch late into games as he has proven. Tejeda falls behind nearly every hitter he faces, and he still has the stamina to pitch into the sixth or seventh innings even after giving up six walks. He would be an average long reliever but an atrocious late innings guy. Putting him in the pen is on par with putting Mitch Williams back in a Phils uni all over again.

Chris: You know, I would have answered this question totally differently last week. After seeing Padilla rise from the ashes over the past couple of games, it might be that Tejeda is just in a slump. He started out very well and then went into a downward spiral, but that may not mean that he’s a total loss. I would keep him in the starting rotation until at least the end of the regular season and reevaluate then.

I don’t know that there’s any merit to the “unfamiliarity” argument.
Hitters successfully face so many different pitcher over the course of a season that I don’t think they need to know a pitcher’s style or
signature in order to get hits.

4. When Jim Thome returns from the DL, how many times per week should he start?

Phil: Jim Thome’s playing time, and the first base situation in general could be solved if the Phillies looked to their past for a first baseman. Sign John Kruk. He’s not even 44 yet. Rumors of Thome’s demise are true, but I think he still has some ball left in him, enough to warrant playing time in August. Maybe he won’t be Thome of old, but I think he has a .270 10-40 second half in him. He should start 4 or 5 times per week. Howard should get the other 2 or 3 games a week and he should get into games in late innings just to get some good swings. Ed Wade or his replacement can take care of the stockpiled infield in the winter.

Chris: As Phil always says, Howard needs to start a lot in order to keep developing his talents. I agree. I’m going to go out on a limb and say, none. I think that they Phillies should eat his contract and use him to give Howard a break every now and then, a la Todd Pratt. They should try to get him to mentor Howard from the perspective of an experienced veteran player.

There is no salary cap in baseball and that is to the Phillies’
advantage right now. Thome is not eating cap space that could be used
for other players. I know it’s painful to feel like you’re paying for
nothing, but I think they should make the best of things. And that does not mean paying the bulk of his salary next year so that another team can have him. They should try to get him to be the leader this team has been lacking.

5. Next Monday will be August 1st. The deadline will have passed and we'll be talking about the Phillies' moves (or non-moves). So put your necks on the line now: Will the Phillies be buyers, sellers, or silent? What players will be gone come August 1st?

Phil: With the Phillies still in it, they can’t sell yet, but they’re not prepared to buy wither. That is why they will be silent. They should be actively pursuing a deal, not necessarily in a rebuilding mode by trading all of your big-pay top-notch players but one trade and a minor improvement could go a long way. If the Phillies could get Kevin Youkilis and other Red Sox prospects for
Wagner, I’d do it in a heartbeat so I wouldn’t have to see David Bell much longer at third. I predict they will make no moves. The Endy Chavez acquisition and the trade of Polanco for Urbina will be their big 2005 moves.

Chris: I think the Phillies will be buyers. I have to believe that Ed Wade’s neck is on the line this season and that he’ll be fired if they don’t make the playoffs. Therefore, it only makes sense for him to try to make a final push.

It pains me to say it, but I think Wagner will be gone. This, to me, is not the best move, but it is what the Phillies are most likely to do. I still think that the Phillies could get a lot for Abreu and maybe Pat Burrell.