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Now What?
After his record-breaking performance in the Homerun Derby, Bobby Abreu has made a name for himself throughout Major League Baseball. Many Phillies fans love the idea of having a high-profile player on the team, but in a season where the team is deficient in several areas – pitching (both starting and relief), catching, etc. – it might be just the time to trade him while he has some value.
In our opinion, something like winning the Homerun Derby gives a player artificial value. And by “artificial value” we mean, a distinction that is not directly related to the player’s contributions to the good of team, but may appear as real value.
The Homerun Derby is basically a sideshow where a pitcher chosen by each contestant lobs creampuffs over the plate for the aforementioned player to hit out of the park. It’s really just an attempt at taking the most exciting thing in baseball and making an event where that is the only thing that occurs. Any player can win the Derby, even the worst player in the league; any player can come up with no homeruns at all in the Derby, even the best player in the league. It’s meaningless.
Now that Abreu has won the Derby and amassed a lot of artificial value, the Phillies should consider trying to trade him for someone with real value. It would be great to get a good young catcher who can gun down runners at second base or take a hit at the plate and still hang onto the ball. Another option would be to get a good starting left-handed pitcher. The possibilities are endless. Also, the Phillies could add Lieberthal onto the trade as a rider, killing two birds with one stone.
Abreu has been a good hitter, but we think that he is way too lax a fielder. We saw a game live where we were sitting right above Abreu and watched as balls landed all around him just due to a lack of hustle, not an inability to get to the ball. He could be replaced by a much better fielder. Might we suggest giving Jason Michaels the starting position in right field – if, he doesn’t go to jail, that is – and starting Lofton in center?
We would be curious to see what you, the readers, think about this.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
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Do you really trust Ed Wade enough to trade Bobby and get value in return?
No, I don't, but I think that Abreu's value is at the highest it has ever been or ever will be. I think that if this isn't done now, we are throwing assets out the window. It's unfortunate that Ed Wade is the GM now, but the situation is what it is.
Well, from reading this, I am greatly disappointed. It seems to me that the writer is unable to form his own opinions; taking an idea from Sports Radio and passing it off as one’s own is hardly reporting. What makes the article worse is that it is written as an alleged sports article. For shame.
“We saw a game live where we were sitting right above Abreu and watched as balls landed all around him just due to a lack of hustle, not an inability to get the ball,” The writer says at one point. I am not sure how witnessing one game makes the writer an expert, but maybe he should do some research. There is plenty of information out there.
Using the same quality of evidence as the writer of this article, I could claim that I once went to a Braves – Giants game where Mike Hampton hit a homerun and Barry Bonds did not. Because of this “evidence” I believe Hampton is a much better hitter than Bonds. If I were to publish this as a journalist I would look ignorant and foolish, as does this writer.
To trade Abreu would be one of the dumbest moves Wade could make. And for once I think he actually acknowledges this. Abreu is one of the top five players in the game. He is not one of the top paid, he is fan friendly, and is a complete pleasure to watch play the game.
If I am going to write something contradicting what are known facts, I feel that I must at least show some research, which the original writer obviously is unable to do.
I am very happy that the writer believes that as a hitter Bobby is good (unfortunately many in the Philly media can’t even figure this out). In fact, if you look at the statistics, Bobby is better than just “good”. He is amazing. Let’s take a look at some of his offensive stats: over the last three years Abreu has on average 23.3 HRs, 28.3 SBs, and has a .303 Avg, a .417 OBP, a .511 SLG, and a .928 OPS. He is one the only players in baseball to have hit 20 or more homeruns and stolen 20 or more bases in the last 6 years—he’s actually hit two more home runs this year, increasing his stats for the seventh year. He has also seen, as of 7/20, 150+ more pitches than any player this year. All of these stats are available at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/stats?statsId=5698 With numbers like that, I think it is fairly easy to conclude that Abreu is a fantastic hitter.
Now the writer claims to have a problem with Abreu’s defense. Let’s again go back and look at the statistics. There are no fielding stats that describe fielding skill broadly and show as much year-to-year correlation as the best offensive stats, but some modern fielding stats are pretty good. Even the old classic Fielding Percentage (FPCT or PCT) gives a decent idea of what it’s intended to measure: how sure-handed a fielder is. It also correlates well from season to season and with wins. Here are some of the stats used today:
Range Factor (RF)—this is a simple count of the number of plays made per game (a Bill James stat). This was the first historical attempt to get at the difference between a high-percentage fielder and one who got to a lot of balls. The argument for its significance is that since almost all fielding percentages are quite high, the best and worst percentage fielders are separated by 10 or 15 plays per season, but the difference in total chances can be as high as 100 plays or so in the same season. RF is subject to many external influences, and thus is more important historically than as a current analysis metric.
Zone Rating—this is a new counting stat in which multiple scorers at each ballpark assign all batted balls to zones, or regions of the field, and count the number caught in each zone by each fielder. Fielders are then assigned percentage ratings based on the number of balls converted into outs in each zone with respect to number of balls that could reasonably be fielded (according to very specific criteria). ZR’s are pretty good defensive stats, but have several weaknesses—they omit line drives and pop ups for IF’s, contain no adjustment for DP pivot ability, do not consider outfielders’ arms, and are not applicable historically. Judgments are still too subjective (which balls “should” be fielded?) and zones are not optimally shaped (twenty six pie shaped wedges).
Well, using our knowledge of these statistics, let’s take a look at Abreu: Fielding Pct. .981 Range Factor 1.92 Zone Rating .929 “ -- philliesphans.com
Overall it looks as if Bobby is a decent fielder, not the best but definitely not the worst. There is another stat called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) (to find out what it is, please go here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/main/article/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/ which is probably the best fielding rating. Unfortunatelly, I am having a hard time finding the data I need to calculate Abreu’s. If you want to look at old data, here is how Abreu ranked in terms of UZR between 2000-2003: http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html. Again, this shows that he is in the middle of the pack of right fielders. It may be worth noting that according to ESPN’s profile, Abreu’s defensive and batting is getting better, not worse.
In conclusion I am sorry that this reply was so long but I was hoping that as a new media outlet for Philly, “–ist “ would bring higher intellectual entries than what Howard Eskin is spouting on WIP. I feel that there is a large, albeit quiet, amount of fans who actually understand baseball and feel turned off when they see unresearched ideas like this continually repeated. Bobby Abreu is one of the best players in the game. To trade him would make the Phillies worse in just about every plausible senierio. Are there players that should be traded? I believe so. How about Billy Wagner? Leiberthal? Is Abreu one of these players? Most definitely not.
I don’t want to offend the writer, but maybe he should collaborate with writers of another new blogish site http://www.thegoodphight.com/ (I promise I am not affiliated with them at all! In fact I do not know any of them by their real names. I do however think the site has some great data on it). I think this would help to dispel incorrect baseball data.
Dear Dan -
First of all, let me thank you being my first negative blog comment. I really wanted one, and now, thanks to you, and can say that I've got one.
Allow me to answer the couple of points you made that were nested within your overly-verbose comment.
1) That I don't form my own baseball ideas - This doesn't require much of a response, but let me say that I started thinking "trade" after the 1st round of the Derby, not after any WIP show. Please don't attack the author because you don't agree with a post. It makes you look like a real fool, and causes me to take the time to point that out.
2) On trading Abreu - You, like most baseball theorists, overlook a small factor in your trade arguments. And that factor is, there is a difference between who *you want to trade* and who is *tradable*. You cite Lieberthal above. Who wants him? He's over-the-hill, less agile than most people's grandmother, and can't make a throw to 2nd to save his life. Add to that that he's making more than anyone in their right mind would pay him - so again, who would want him? You can't trade away your garbage on the assumption that some dumb team out there will want them.
Do you agree that something needs to be done with this lineup? Of course you do. So, I ask you, where will these lineup changes come from? You'll have to trade someone of some value to get them. I still hold the postion that Abreu is the best candidate. His stats are on the decline and he's not as good as you think his - even with all of the obscure stats that you cited. That is where practice supercedes theory.
I hope that this has not come off as too offensive to you; I really tried to stay professional given what my real opinion of your comment is.
Enjoy your stats,
--Chris
You are correct, it was wrong of me to presume that after finding out that you listen to sports radio: "He has an unhealthy obsession with call-in sports talk radio. He hopes to shortly make the transition from passive listener to angry, incoherent caller" (WIP in Philadelphia). I’m sure it’s no coincidence that WIP happened to be discussing the same exact "idea" you had. I apologize, please forgive me. Although if it makes me look like such a fool why did you point it out? It should be obvious. I am sorry about my overly-verbose comment in as much as you obviously were unable to read it all. I think I also owe you a thank you for calling me a baseball theorist; I have never been called that before and I take it as a compliment.
Yes, I did mention Lieberthal. I also mentioned Wagner, who many teams would love to have (for proof please see any current rumor reports). The Phillies have already acquired a closer who is cheaper and, it can be argued, just as effective (except for his first two outings) as Wagner. Therefore if teams are calling asking for Wagner, make them take Lieberthal as well. This is not an unheard of idea. It has been rumored that the Marlins are in the process of shopping Burnett but only to a team that will take Lowell as well. It is probably worth noting, however, that I completely disagree your assertion that Lieberthal is “over the hill,” less agile than my deceased grandmother, or that he cannot make a throw to second. I believe the fact that he has thrown out 13 base runners already this year and is in the complete middle of the league with Caught Stealing Pct. provide clear evidence of this.
There is a problem with trading Leiberthal: who would the Phillies have take his place?
I have already mentioned they already have the guy to take Wagner’s place, but what about Lieberthal? I believe this is where the idea of the trade comes in. If the Sox were willing to trade someone like Kelly Shoppach as well as someone else for Wagner and Lieberthal, a trade might be possible. If a legit catching prospect cannot be had it will be impossible to trade Leiberthal, as the Phils’ preeminent catching prospect, Ruiz, is by all accounts 2 years from playing.
As to the original post, I again beg you to look at the facts, not just what you saw at one game. Like I said in my post, Abreu’s stats are getting better, not worse. I am not sure what you mean by “obscure stats” unless you mean most up to date, useful stats that scouts are using to evaluate players. Again, I refer you to read some scout opinions on Abreu as well as his stats. It is almost unanimous that he is getting much better, not worse—which, by the way, goes against most sabermatics theory that a player’s best year is usually at age 27.
But because you are so positive you are correct can you please point out to me one area in which Abreu is declining? And please do not go into clutch hitting. Let’s go into some details voiced on more perceptive sports outlets: For his career, Abreu has a “.305 batting average [are you aware of this stat?], 413 on-base percentage, .518 slugging percentage [too obscure?]. In his career with runners in scoring position and two outs, he's batting .307 with a .478 OBP, .508 slugging. Bases loaded? .330 batting, .402 on-base, .534 slugging. And just with runners in scoring position? Even better.” –Rob Neyer See, evidence is fun.
I am confused as to what you mean by this statement: “he's not as good as you think he is - even with all of the obscure stats that you cited. That is where practice supercedes theory.” Which practice are you speaking of? Which theory? Who’s practice? Who’s theory?
“I really tried to stay professional given what my real opinion of your comment is.”
I wonder how professional a statement like this really is?
I am sorry, I was hoping that “-ist” would offer more than just the same regurgitation of incorrect opinions of the popular media. My response was more due to the fact that I believed that if you saw the evidence you would be open-minded enough to see some flaws in the WIP opinion. After reading your response I see that you have already made up your mind and refuse to look to anyone else’s point of view.
I apologize in advance if there is too much detail for you to get a hold of here.
~Dan